Despite significant fluctuations (not to say failures), the cryptocurrency market is showing signs of positive dynamics. Macroeconomic factors, such as political decisions by the US president, and technological trends, such as DeFi and tokenization, are creating favorable conditions for growth. The market promises to be interesting and provide new opportunities. However, success will depend on the ability to adapt to the ever-changing environment.
For example, in 2025, 27 new cryptocurrencies were listed on Binance, only FORM, RED and LAYER showed price growth. On the one hand, the projects turned out to be unprofitable for many investors. On the other hand, this information serves as a signal for shorting
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On the one hand, analyst Marcus Thielen of 10x Research believes that Bitcoin price is expected to drop to $60 thousand. Nansen experts talk about 70% probability of the market bottoming out until June. But the Santiment analytics platform, which specializes in analyzing online data and social metrics, is not, sees potential market growth in the medium and long term. Despite the recent decline in Ethereum’s capitalization by $62 billion, pessimism among investors may indicate an impending market reversal. Historically, markets often move in the opposite direction to the mood of participants. In particular, the ETH/BTC ratio has fallen by 77% since December 2021, which may indicate the potential for Ethereum to recover (which is currently going through a rough patch).
Activity in the Bitcoin and Ethereum networks is growing. The number of transactions and active addresses in the Ethereum network is increasing, which may be due to the popularity of decentralized finance (DeFi) and new blockchain protocols. At the same time, bitcoin demonstrates a steady inflow of capital into Bitcoin-ETFs. This means that large institutional investors are still interested.
Moreover, since Monday (April 14), the crypto community has shown an increased level of optimism. This is the highest level of positive (compared to negative) comments since the day before Trump announced the increase in tariffs. The US president, as we have previously mentioned, put them on hold.
Santiment experts recommended keeping a close eye on FOMO (fear of missing out) and the greed index if the BTC price approaches $90 thousand this week. Thus, the rise in the bitcoin price could provoke emotional reactions among retail investors, fueling further growth.
But for forecasts the institutional arm of Coinbase, the crypto market is currently preparing for a «winter» characterized by prolonged losses and stagnation. They saw the beginning of the bear market cycle in late March. However, the same analysis conducted for the COIN50 (which includes the top 50 tokens by market capitalization), shows that the asset class as a whole has clearly been trading in a bear market since late February. This was stated by David Duong, global head of research at Coinbase Institutional.
Bitcoin dropped below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on March 9 and has since consolidated below this level, a sign of long-term bearish momentum. The 200-day SMA is widely used to gauge long-term trends, with sustained moves above it representing a bull market and vice versa.
This year, the crypto market has been heavily influenced by global economic and political events. Expectations about the policies of the new US administration, including the proposal to create a strategic bitcoin reserve, caused a significant response. But later overestimated expectations of positive changes triggered the fallwhich is what we are seeing. In addition, macroeconomic factors, such as rising inflation, the actions of the US Federal Reserve, and a potential recession, leave traders in limbo. De facto, the market is frozen.
And there’s more. How rights According to Reuters, local authorities in China have begun selling confiscated cryptocurrencies through private companies, contrary to the country’s ban on the trade. The Chinese authorities took this step to replenish the state treasury as the economy slows down.
According to data According to Bitbo, China holds approximately 194,000 BTC worth $16 billion and is the second-largest country holding bitcoin after the United States. Therefore, a drop in the price of bitcoin is very likely.
Positive dynamics in the crypto market are associated with innovation. The growth in the volume of transactions in DeFi protocols such as Uniswap and Aave shows that this sector remains relevant and growing.
Another important trend is the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs). In 2025, more and more companies and financial institutions are experimenting with tokenizing real estate, stocks, and even works of art. However, confidence was significantly undermined by the collapse of the Mantra (OM) token, which lost 90% of the price in just a few hours.
In addition, central banks in many countries are actively working on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) Ukraine is also considering the introduction of a digital hryvniawhich should help legalize and broaden the acceptance of cryptocurrencies.
As usual, analysts’ opinions differed. The crypto market has the potential to grow, but several factors can negate this.
Standard Chartered analysts believeThe experts say that the current corrections are temporary and predict bitcoin’s growth to $200 thousand in 2025 and $500 thousand in the long term.
Coinbase’s research department does not consider the current state of the market to be positive and predicts a long period of decline.