Analysts warn of increased market volatility due to possible delays in the US election results. Investors are cautious, and bitcoin is striving to reach new heights. What to expect on the crypto market in the face of political risks?
Morgan Stanley analysts warned. The report said that volatility on the stock markets could increase further due to the delayed vote count, economic instability and unpredictable voter behavior.
«A delay in the announcement of election results creates a period of uncertainty and speculation, which historically leads to increased levels of short-term market volatility. Due to the small margins of victory in some states, we anticipate that the delay could last for days or even weeks», — the report says.
Pav Handal, chief analyst at Swyftx, expects the crypto market to decline sharply after the US elections.
Other experts suggest that bitcoin may experience a short-term drop, but it will not be significant. And it could reach a historic high this week. Maria Carola, CEO of the StealthEX crypto exchange predicted BTC price at $73,680 in the coming days.
«As the correction test at the $70,020 support level failed, bitcoin started moving towards $73,860, which it could reach by the end of the week,» she said.
Chief Investment Officer of the Maelstrom Investment Fund, American entrepreneur, co-founder and former director of the BitMEX crypto exchange Arthur Hayes hedges
Hayes reported CoinDesk that Maelstrom holds 5% of its assets in USDe (Ethena USD) staking with a yield of about 13%. This synthetic stablecoin maintains a 1-to-1 peg through an arbitrage strategy, including trading futures that are linked to BTC and ETH.
The entrepreneur predicts that if the elections go off without social unrest, the markets could go up sharply. In this case, Maelstrom plans to transfer all sUSDe assets into cryptocurrency. If unrest breaks out, it could lead to short-term price fluctuations for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin and gold have a reputation as assets that protect against budget deficits and inflation. However, if Trump wins, he is likely to focus on tax breaks and deregulation without cutting social spending.
At the same time, Hayes believes that regardless of who wins, both candidates will continue to issue new money in huge volumes, which will only help cryptocurrencies.
Interestingly, in the latest episode of the podcast with the famous entertainer Joe Rogan, US presidential candidate Donald Trump did not discuss cryptocurrencies or bitcoin, a topic that many expected to hear. Rogan, who has previously spoken positively about bitcoin and NFTs, did not ask about it either.
One reason could be the recent the failure of Trump’s crypto project called World Liberty Financial. Despite its active promotion, the project faced problems, and only a small portion of WLFI tokens were sold. This may have influenced Trump’s reluctance to discuss cryptocurrencies, especially because of criticism of centralization and opacity of the World Liberty Financial project.
Professor at Columbia Business School Omid Malekan believes said that the memcoin sector could be severely affected by Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. He suggested that investor interest in memecoins is growing due to frustration with the unfair tokenization of other projects backed by venture capitalists.
«Memcoins are simple, and people like them for their fair distribution. But they have little use or value. I believe that in a world where coins with more utility are not heavily regulated, memecoins become less attractive»,” Malekan explained.
Nick Carter, a popular investor in the crypto community, agreed with the professor, adding that the popularity of «memes» coins is partly a response to the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) tough approach to the crypto industry.
Brendan Malone, Head of Policy at Paradigm, emphasized that under the leadership of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, the number of legal claims against crypto projects by the regulator has increased significantly.
However, many do not share Malekan’s opinion. Famous trader Murad Makhmudov consider is that «memes» coins are independent of policy. According to him, the sector’s growth is driven by an increase in global money supply: it has exceeded $107.1 trillion, and the annual growth rate is 7%. The capitalization of the memecoin sector has reached $57 billion.
Anatoliy Yakovenko, co-founder of Solana Labs
«Memcoin trading — is entertainment. It’s a Keynesian beauty contest
According to the forecast market Polymarket. As of October 31, Trump had the majority of votes. 65.3% of people are ready to vote for him, while —34.8% are ready to vote for Harris. This is how the distribution looks in the graph below.
One of the so-called «whales», i.e. large players in the market, is so confident in the victory of the Republican leader that he spent $8.6 million on bets through Polymarket on Trump’s victory in the previous 7 days.