The last few weeks have been a roller coaster ride (in every sense) for crypto investors. It all started with the loud promises of Donald Trump, who took office in January 2025. From decrees, crypto balls, and summits in the White House to a personalized TRUMP token and DeFi platform of World Liberty Financial — he actively demonstrated his support for cryptocurrencies. But in just a month, enthusiasm and optimism turned into a mixture of pessimism and skepticism. Let’s understand why Trump’s actions are negatively affecting the crypto market despite his support, and try to predict which way cryptocurrency prices might move next.
All sorts of news about cryptocurrencies started pouring in immediately after Trump’s inauguration. The loudest and most anticipated was signing of a decree on March 6, 2025, establishing the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. This was the document that was expected to revolutionize the world of digital assets. But it turned out to be the opposite.
Bitcoin was supposed to be the main star. The day before, investors began buying up coins as BTC continued to update its historical highs, having just crossed the $100 thousand mark, and most analysts predicted further growth in the value of the asset to almost $1 million. Isn’t it a great investment? It would seem that Trump has fulfilled his main promise. But the price of bitcoin is rapidly falling, and it is possible that The next milestone is $70 thousand.
Trump acted like a sneaky genie who twists wishes. Investors had expected the US government to buy bitcoins to replenish the reserve, as Michael Saylor’s strategy has been doing for years. Instead, the national reserve will consist of coins confiscated in criminal cases — no new purchases. On the one hand, this is a reasonable use of what is already available without spending taxpayers’ money (the United States owns about 200 thousand bitcoins worth $17 billion). On the other hand — BTC will not have the powerful capital inflow that everyone was counting on.
But Trump went further, having announced at the Crypto Summit in the White House On March 7, that the reserve will also include Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA). The summit itself was a real show, with crypto company directors invited to attend, and political players sitting alongside them.
On the same day, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the regulator of US national banks, allowed banks to store cryptocurrencies. As if the mood among the cryptocurrency community should have improved, as this is a big step towards mass adoption of cryptocurrencies. Added to this was the SEC’s decision to drop legal action against such giants as Coinbase and Kraken. This is the long-awaited reduction of pressure on the industry from regulators.
In addition, 33 US states are promoting bills on a strategic bitcoin reserve. Texas was the first to do so: the Senate accepted SB-21 bill on March 6.
One would think that all this crypto enthusiasm would drive prices to the moon. In fact, this is exactly what many people were counting on when they started buying bitcoin and ETH. But it didn’t work out that way. Bitcoin briefly jumped up after the reserve announcement, reaching $95,000 on March 3, but by March 10, it had fallen to $80,650 (-6.5%). Ethereum and other altcoins repeated this scenario: at first, there was a small rise amid positive news, which then came to naught.
The first wave was the disappointment of the expected infusion of American funds into Bitcoin. The second was the serious tension over the tariff wars between the US and China, and now the EU, Canada, and Mexico.
So this time, the market is fighting with powerful opponents. Global trade wars are still stronger than Trump’s pro-cryptocurrency policy. In a situation of uncertainty, investors usually do not make rash moves and prefer waiting tactics.
As of March 13, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is worth about $82,769, having recovered slightly after falling to $80 thousand. The news about the reserve is a long-term positive factor: governments that hold BTC can legalize it. By the middle of the year, the price could test $100 thousand again, provided that Trump continues to promote pro-cryptocurrency initiatives and tariff fears subside. If The US Federal Reserve will continue its tight policyThe price of digital gold may be stuck in the range of $75 thousand — $85 thousand for some time.
Ethereum (ETH) continues to disappoint, falling 61% from its high ($4,891 in 2021), despite the fact that whales accumulated $2.4 billion last week. It is currently at $1,896 and has room for growth as it is included in the crypto reserve. Although Another problem with the update spoil the mood.
In general, trading volume has been falling since February 27, when traders were buying up falling assets, charged with expectations of a brighter future. With market capitalization declining over the past two weeks, traders’ behavior is indicative of exhaustion and loss of hope, say Santiment analysts.
Low trading volumes, even during small price rises, indicate a decrease in enthusiasm and caution among traders who do not believe in the possibility of further growth. This may indicate a weak market momentum: without active buyer participation, prices may fall again. For a sustainable recovery, prices and volumes need to rise simultaneously.
Trump’s actions are a really strong boost for cryptocurrencies. But trade wars and other macroeconomic events dictate their own rules. In addition, a serious blow to sentiment was dealt by a hacker attack on the Bybit exchange, which resulted in North Korea receiving $1.5 billion.