On January 20, the 47th President of the United States of America — Donald Trump is expected to be inaugurated. His return to the White House caused a wave of discussions in the crypto community, as well as significant price fluctuations. A loyal approach to the regulation of digital assets and potential changes in the leadership of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could change the cryptocurrency industry forever. But what will this bring: new opportunities or risks? On the eve of the important date, let’s take a look at the key initiatives of the Trump administration, their potential impact on the crypto market, and the implications for investors and companies.
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One of the most important changes will be new leadership of the SEC (Bye, Gary Gensler!). The main figures in this process are commissioners Hester Piers and Mark Ueda, who are known for their support of cryptocurrencies. They are expected to begin the process of revising existing regulations and clarify when cryptocurrencies can be considered securities.
Donald Trump is expected to issue a series of executive orders aimed at supporting cryptocurrencies. Among the possible initiatives:
The Trump administration’s crypto-friendly promises sparked a wave of optimism in the market at the end of 2024. At that time, bitcoin reached an all-time high of $100 thousand, like many altcoins, fueled by hopes for lighter regulation. However, against the backdrop of a strengthening US economy and the realization that Trump’s initiatives could not be implemented so quickly, at the beginning of 2025, there was a drop in. There are still risks:
While investors are preparing for changes in the regulatory environment, opportunities for new and interesting crypto products and services are on the horizon, but the risks of legal and financial uncertainty remain.
For example, the market was recently unexpectedly hit hard by data on the decline in unemployment in the United States: in December last year, many more people were hired than expected, and the unemployment rate was a surprisingly low 4.1%.
When the US Federal Reserve (Fed) sees such high employment figures, it is less inclined to cut interest rates, as it does not want the economy to overheat and start to grow again.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Fund believes that although the short-term reaction to this data will be bearish, the fundamental strength of the labor market may actually continue the bullish trend eventually.
K33 analysts noted. The current market situation is significantly different from 2016:
Despite the short-term challenges, K33 analysts are optimistic about the long-term prospects for bitcoin under a Trump presidency. They predict that the administration will continue to focus on economic performance, as it did during Trump’s first term. Tax rebate policies, deregulation, and a favorable business environment could boost the growth of risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.
On the other hand, some analysts are not so optimistic. First, bitcoin’s surge amid news of Trump’s victory was at least partly an impulse trade, which is why prices are falling, although the pullback has been moderate so far.
For example, the co-founder of the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX Arthur Hayes predicts a significant drop in the market shortly after Trump’s inauguration due to significant disappointment among crypto investors.
There are also concerns about the long-term sustainability of digital currencies. One of them is related to the bad reputation of cryptocurrencies as a tool in the hands of criminals. Another is that the huge amount of energy consumed by mining farms. Many people statesThe company has also argued that other technologies, such as artificial intelligence, are more deserving of these energy resources.
Cryptocurrencies have been around for many years, but their practical use is still very limited, which fuels the argument that they are mostly purely speculative instruments with no intrinsic value. For example, in a recent interview Gary Gensler has described the crypto market as being largely built on mismatch, dividing the space into bitcoin and «everything else».