Will the August curse of bitcoin destroy the crypto market?

In July, crypto users were eagerly waiting for the start of the alt-season. It’s already August, and the situation seems to be getting worse. Well-known experts, investors, and analysts generally believe that the crypto market will undergo a correction in the coming months (read: prices will plummet). And while some investors are once again distractedly frozen in anticipation of at least some clarity, others see this as a chance and are hopefully waiting for BTC to fall.

Is the bitcoin curse coming back?

Robert Kiyosaki, the author of the bestselling book «Rich Dad, Poor Dad», reminded us of the so-called bitcoin curse, implying that the crypto market is going to experience a big drop in August.

Since last month, BTC has already experienced a significant price drop: from a record $123 thousand. to $115 thousand (as of August 6).

Kiyosaki suggestedsaid that bitcoin could fall below $90 thousand, and he hopes for this with all his heart, as he would then double his position.

Robert Kiyosaki called the problem not bitcoin as such, but the rapid growth of the US debt, which already exceeds $30 trillion. The financial expert blames the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury for this, which often resort to printing dollars out of thin air.

It is interesting to note that Bitcoin’s fall in the near future Arthur Hayes, a well-known businessman, chief investment officer of the Maelstrom fund and former chairman of the BitMEX exchange, also expects the same. In his opinion, BTC could fall back to $100 thousand, and Ethereum (ETH) — to $3 thousand. He cited fears of new tariffs, a sluggish credit market, and a slowdown in job creation in the United States as reasons for this.

Hayes is not the only one. Trading analyst Pentoshi, known for predicting the peak of the bullish trend in 2021, also preparing «stock up on» bitcoins if their price falls below $100 thousand.
Michael Van De Poppe determined 110-112 thousand as a strong accumulation zone, and expects bitcoin to trade higher over the next 6-12 months. However, if BTC falls below this mark, the price will drop as low as $103,190.

Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, also made a pessimistic forecast, in which potentially possible drop of BTC to $10 thousand. VanEck analysts saidwho expect BTC to fall by 30% in the summer and altcoins to fall by up to 60%.

What is this August curse of bitcoin? Essentially, these are the months during which the asset most often performed poorly. For example, the average August return on BTC over the past 10 years is only +1.57%, while the median is -7.49%. That is, most Augusts were unprofitable for bitcoin.

Over the past 12 years, BTC has ended August in the red eight times. The average August drop is around 11.4%. Bitcoin’s best August was in 2017 with a 65.32% gain, while the worst was in 2015 with a loss of 18.67%.

Why is the potential drop in Bitcoin — a good thing?

Despite the short-term negative outlook for the price, the value of BTC will grow in the long run Over the next 3-10 years, the price of the asset has a chance to reach $1 million. Since 2011, the cumulative growth of bitcoin has exceeded 20,000,000%, which is significantly higher than the cumulative growth of the Nasdaq 100 (541%) and the major US stock indices (282%).

If we consider the annualized return, it is 230% for BTC, which is 10 times higher than the Nasdaq 100 index. Over the same period, major U.S. stocks had an annualized return of 14%, high-yield bonds rose 5.4%, and gold had a return of 1.5%.

In addition, if money starts flowing out of bitcoin and into other assets, the alt-season may well be underway. The current rate of BTC dominance in the digital asset market is 61.85%, while the desired rate is — 50% or lower. Although, judging by the sentiment, a price drop will lead to another accumulation.

Meanwhile, the Japanese company Metaplanet acquires 463 BTC for $54 million at a price of $115,895. In addition, Metaplanet has achieved a 459.2% return on bitcoin since the beginning of the year and now owns a total of 17,595 BTC worth almost $1.8 billion. This firm is currently the fifth largest company with its own treasury, while Strategy ranks first with the largest coin reserves.