In July 2024, the air temperature in Ukraine is breaking records almost every day. Moreover, this heat is occurring during a 60-year climate cooling cycle. This was discussed in an interview with Forbes climatologist Svitlana Krakovska.
The next decade will see the start of a new warming cycle on the planet, to which anthropogenic climate change should be added. Events show that we should start preparing now.
The last year, since June 2023, has been the hottest in the history of observations. The Earth’s atmosphere is overheated, the continents are warming faster than water, and Europe is warming twice as fast as others. In Ukraine, an anticyclone is persisting for an extremely long time — temperatures will be high until it is replaced by an anticyclone.
Oddly enough, the heat wave may be helped by the fight against climate change. The atmosphere over Europe is getting cleaner, and more sunlight is getting through. The climatologist says it’s like an exacerbation before recovery. But if we don’t reduce pollution, the Earth will heat up faster.
The fact that human activity is involved in climate change is evidenced by the speed at which it occurs. There are also periodic natural climate changes. These include 60-year cooling and warming cycles. Since 2000, there has been a decline in the cooling cycle, but due to emissions, it was practically not noticeable to humanity. In the next cycle, in the 2030s, artificial and natural warming will overlap. In the cycles that occurred 150 years ago, the difference between cooling and warming temperatures was 0.2-0.3°C — now it is 1.1°C.
In 60 years, Kyiv will have a climate like southern Romania: summers will be 7 degrees warmer and 17.2% drier. A climatologist even predicts a climate like the Middle East in a pessimistic scenario. Along with the heat, extreme events will increase: large hailstorms, droughts, flooding — especially in the southern regions. Winters will also become warm, with almost no snow.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine also contributes to the warming. The Kakhovka reservoir no longer moistens or cools the south. Forests and infrastructure are being destroyed. Instead of environmental measures, money is being spent on countering aggression.
To prepare for the changes, many aspects of life need to be restructured. Building codes and the way people create indoor climates need to change:
«Instead of installing air conditioners in each individual room after the fact, it is much more efficient to provide them at the level of the entire building – so-called ceiling-mounted – at the design stage».
The transportation sector needs to change so that trains and other transportation do not turn into hell. Asphalt should be replaced with more durable surfaces wherever possible — tiles, etc.
Even in the worst of the heat, agriculture will be a major sector of Ukraine’s economy. But new crops will emerge, and existing crops will yield lower yields, and seasonality will change. New pests and plant diseases will appear. Water may be scarce — most of Ukraine’s rivers are fed by snow, so more artificial irrigation may be needed.
Perhaps the most important thing is to realize the reality and inevitability of climate change and actively prepare for it.