The cryptocurrency market lives in cycles, and one of the most anticipated moments for investors is the alt-season. This is the period when alternative cryptocurrencies outpace bitcoin in terms of growth and bring huge profits to enthusiasts. This time, the alt-season was predicted to end in late 2024. But we saw only a short-term growth.
The next wave of enthusiasm was in early 2025, and was caused by the pro-cryptocurrency Trump administration coming to power in the United States. But even this excitement is gradually fading. The rollback from unrealized promises and expectations has been painful. In one day catastrophic liquidations surpassed market declines during COVID-2019 and the FTX bankruptcy. The situation is complicated, but has the potential for the start of the altcoin season this year been lost? Let’s see what analysts have to say.
The first altcoin season occurred in 2017 amid the ICO boom, and the second in 2021, fueled by institutional adoption and DeFi. Both times, altcoins followed a parabolic trend after BTC fell by 10-20%. Since the beginning of February, bitcoin has been staying below $100 thousand more often than above. The latest drop in price is because the US Department of Justice received authorization for sale approximately 69,370 bitcoins seized in connection with the activity Silk Road darknet market. The total value of the assets is currently estimated at about $6.5 billion. A massive sale could cause BTC to fall, so traders are on hold.
The market capitalization of altcoins is currently $272 billion, according to data TradingView. At the same time, bitcoin’s dominance is 61% (as of February 11). This is the highest figure since the beginning of 2021. When bitcoin’s dominance increases, altcoins usually stagnate, and vice versa. Institutional interest in bitcoin, in particular through spot bitcoin ETFs and large financial institutions (e.g., BlackRock, Fidelity), further limits the flow of capital into altcoins.
CMC’s Altcoin Seasonal Index, which measures how altcoins perform compared to bitcoin, is 43 as of February 11, which is significantly lower than the required 75+ for the start of a full-fledged altcoin season.
Will bitcoin give way to altcoins this year?
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Arguments «for» alt-season in 2025
1. Historical events point to the beginning of the alt-season
If you look at the previous cycles (2017, 2021), the alt-season started 6-9 months after the bitcoin halving. The last halving occurred in April 2024. According to the logic of previous cycles, altcoins should start growing in the first half of 2025.
2. Ethereum dynamics
Ethereum is traditionally the flagship of the altcoin season. If ETH/BTC starts growing, it will be a strong signal for altcoins.
3. Market fatigue from bitcoin and a decline in its dominance
Some analysts believe that if bitcoin fails to break through the 71% dominance level, altcoins will get a second chance to grow. Trader Cryptowzrd notesthat the patterns on the OTHERS/BTC chart (the ratio of altcoin capitalization to bitcoin) are very similar to 2017 and 2021 when the altcoin season began.
4. Speculative interest and growth of memecoins
We have already seen how some memecoins (PEPE, FLOKI, PNUT, CHILLGUY, TRUMP) gave huge Xs at the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025. This is a typical prelude to the massive growth of altcoins. The more the market is heated by speculation, the higher the chances of a big alt-season. But now we are seeing a drop in interest in memecoins.
Arguments for «versus» alt-season
1. Bitcoin’s dominance at a 4-year high
The dominance of bitcoin at 61-64% means that the capital is mostly in bitcoin. Over the past 4 months, its dominance has only increased, as large players are still not ready to take risks and invest in altcoins.
Will there be an alt-season in 2025?
Currently, the market is in a waiting phase due to uncertainty, which is dictated, among other things, by the political arena. Bitcoin maintains a strong dominance over altcoins. For the growth of other coins to begin, bitcoin must stabilize at higher levels and its dominance must decrease. This allows capital to move into altcoins. Although there are signs of institutional accumulation of Ethereum, the overall mood in the altcoin market is not very positive.
Those who are counting on the altcoin season should keep a close eye on the dominance of BTC, the ETH/BTC pair, and the overall market liquidity. As well as the actions of the Trump administration (of course) and major players in the crypto market.
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