NASA predicts a dangerous asteroid collision with the Moon in a few years

According to NASA, the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with the Moon in 2032 has increased from 3.8% to 4.3%.

Initial data suggested that 2024 YR4 posed a risk of colliding with the Earth in about 8 years. However, as the amount of data expanded, it later became clear that this asteroid posed no danger to Earth.

At the same time, there is still a chance that 2024 YR4 could crash into the Moon. New observations space telescope «James Webb» allowed scientists to refine the asteroid’s orbit, which led to this small increase in the probability of a collision with the Moon.

The ATLAS asteroid impact warning system in Chile first detected 2024 YR4 in December 2024. NASA immediately classified this asteroid as a potentially hazardous object.

Initial calculations showed that the probability of this asteroid colliding with the Earth on December 22, 2032, was about 1%. Over the next few weeks, this possibility rose alarmingly to almost 3% before finally dropping to zero by the end of February.

At the time of its discovery, 2024 YR4 was located at a distance of 829 thousand kilometers from Earth. Since then, the distance between it and the Earth has increased Until mid-April, the asteroid was too far away to be observed with ground-based telescopes. It is due to approach Earth again in June 2028. Meanwhile, the ability to «James Webb» observe the asteroid in the infrared spectrum has been of great help to astronomers who have been monitoring the movement of this celestial body for about a month.

Researchers led by Andy Rivkin, a planetary astronomer at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, used the Webb Near Infrared Camera to observe 2024 YR4 and assess its potential damage even as it moved out of view. In May, they did the latter observations of this space rock before the Sun obscured it. This additional data improved their prediction of where the asteroid will be on December 22, 2032 by 20%.

NASA assures us that even if an asteroid the size of a 10-story building collides with the Moon, our satellite’s orbit will not change. Webb’s observations also helped the researchers to clarify the size of the asteroid, finding out that its width is approximately 53 to 67 meters, which is quite small for an asteroid. A direct hit would likely only result in a new crater.

In this case, scientists would have a rare opportunity to to observe the asteroid collision with the Moon and the formation of a corresponding crater. Currently, NASA is already preparing for the fact that 2024 YR4 should approach Earth in 2028.

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