Euro 2024 starts today with the opening match between Germany and Scotland, and artificial intelligence believes that the match will end in favor of the tournament hosts (2:0) with a probability of 76%.
The Octopus AI model from Luzmo is a reference to Paul the Octopus, who predicted the outcomes of some matches at Euro 2008 and the 2010 FIFA World Cup.
According to Luzmo’s CTO, Haroen Vermeulen, the company used something similar to the Monte Carlo method
Monte Carlo simulation is a mathematical method that predicts the possible outcomes of an uncertain event. Computer programs use this method to analyze past data and predict a series of future outcomes based on a choice of actions. In 22 of the 100 simulations, France won the tournament — Luzmo’s home country, Belgium, had a 3.4% chance of winning the trophy, while England had a 3.2% chance (although it had a higher chance of reaching the semifinals).
Vermeulen said in a comment to the publication The Register, that «the model itself is essentially a match simulator that runs simulations of games based on metrics such as offensive and defensive ratings… to distribute attack probabilities compared to other teams».
Euro 2024 will run from June 14 to July 14. In the group stage, the national team of Ukraine will play against Belgium, Romania, and Slovakia — the first match against Romania starts on June 17.
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