According to the latest data from the research company Tephra Digital, Bitcoin price dynamics (BTC) largely follows the movements of the global money supply (M2) and gold. This may indicate the potential for significant growth of Bitcoin in the next six months.
The first graph shows a strong correlation between the global M2 indicator and the BTC price with a lag of 102 days. If the historical correlation continues, the bitcoin price could reach around $167 thousand over the next three months, which would represent an annual increase of over 330%.
The second graph compares the dynamics of gold and bitcoin, taking into account a lag of 200 days. It shows that BTC has every chance of repeating the trend of gold, which is traditionally considered a safe haven for investors. In this case, in 200 days, the cryptocurrency rate may rise to $185 thousand, which corresponds to 154% annual growth.
The charts also highlight key events that have influenced the cryptocurrency market:
- 2021: “market mania” and the collapse after the ban on cryptocurrencies in China
- 2022: “crypto winter” and the fall of the FTX exchange
- 2024: approval of the first spot bitcoin ETF in the United States
- 2025: announcement of new tariffs and political changes in the United States.
Interestingly, JPMorgan analysts were more modest in their vision and predicted the growth of bitcoin to $126 thousand by the end of 2025.
Source: Tephra Digital LLC
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