Should we expect an alt-season in July 2025?

After Bitcoin’s fall below the psychological mark of $100,000, panic began to set in, as a 10% drop would have led to the liquidation of positions worth more than $2 billion. But everything went against the trend: BTC is currently growing and is about to break the all-time high set on May 22, 2025: $111,970. If this happens, liquidations will reach a whopping $15 billion. But it can also bring back the long-forgotten taste of the altcoin season. There is hope that this will happen in July.

Repeating the trend or going against the grain?

Bitcoin has shown many times that it can move against the trend. For example, the recent events were triggered by the fact that BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) invested $3.85 billion in BTC, which sparked increased interest from traditional investors. Sosovalue data showsaid that last month’s proceeds increased the total value of IBIT’s assets to $73 billion.

In addition, Botanix Labs introduced Spiderchain, a second-tier solution for the Bitcoin network, is compatible with the Ethereum virtual machine, enabling five-second transactions and decentralized smart contracts. The network, which has processed more than 26 million testnet transactions since December 2024, now supports applications such as GMX and Dolomite with an average fee of $0.02.

In June, bitcoin-focused ETFs attracted 4.6 billion. Thus, the total proceeds amounted to approximately $49 billion, and net assets — $134 billion.

All this contributed to the fact that the share of bitcoin’s market capitalization reached 65%. This is the highest figure of 2025. That is why the price is trying to break through the $100 thousand mark.

What about altcoins?

Alt-season (or altcoin season) — a period when other cryptocurrencies show significant growth, outpacing bitcoin in terms of value growth. Historically, such periods have been observed after significant events, such as bitcoin halving.

The largest alt-seasons were in 2017 due to the ICO boom, and in 2021 amid the development of DeFi and the popularity of NFTs. In 2025, investors expect altcoins to grow again, in part due to political changes and the market cycle after the bitcoin halving in April 2024.

This time, believes analyst under the nickname Danny, the July alt-season will be very similar to the one in 2021.

In his opinion, after the altcoin season of 2017 and 2021, the stagnation of altcoins was caused by the dominance of BTC. And now a wave of global economic events will bring fresh liquidity to altcoins. Bitcoin’s dominance will begin to decline, and this will be the first sign of a new altcoin season.

Arguments «for» alt-season in July 2025 are also provided a trader at Cryptowzrd. He emphasized the similarity of the current altcoin capitalization charts to bitcoin with the 2017 and 2021 patterns.

Follow the movements

Traditionally, Ethereum is the flagship altcoin. If the ETH/BTC pair starts to grow, this could be a strong signal for other altcoins. Analysts believe that if bitcoin does not overcome the 71% dominance level, altcoins will have a chance to grow Recent data indicates a steady interest in Ethereum.

Also, in late 2024 and early 2025, memecoins such as PEPE, FLOKI, and TRUMP showed significant growth. This was often a harbinger of the alt-season. These coins are of interest to small traders, creating a domino effect for other altcoins. Although memecoins later moved AI tokens.

On the other hand, the high dominance of bitcoin (65%) suggests that the altcoin season is not yet over. In early 2025, the BTC market share reached a four-year high. This means that most of the capital in the market is concentrated in bitcoin. If this trend continues, the chances of an alt-season in July are almost zero.

The potential drop is also predicted analysts at VanEck. They expect BTC to fall by 30% in the summer, and altcoins by up to 60%. Recovery is only possible in the fall, when the main tokens regain momentum. It will be possible to return to previous historical highs no earlier than the end of 2025.

In general, previous alt-seasons were accompanied by significant events, such as the ICO or NFT boom. Despite Ethereum’s leading role, its current dynamics remain weak. To start the alt-season, a strong catalyst is needed, which is not yet visible.