Uptober or Octobear: Are we waiting for a bull market this year?

October may be a crucial month for the cryptocurrency market. Historically, Bitcoin has shown growth during this period, which is why the month was even called Uptober. However, we should not forget that the crypto market has been and remains unstable. And October can turn into an Octobear — bearish month just overnight. Will we see bitcoin and altcoins reach new heights this October?

Crypto enthusiasts often refer to October as Uptober (derived from the combination of the English words up — «up» and October — «October»). This is because for many years, Bitcoin has demonstrated high performance in this particular month. The only exceptions were 2014 and 2018. And, as you know, when bitcoin grows rapidly in value, altcoins begin to imitate their older brother.

Bitcoin performance in October during 2013-2023.

Even though the market is going through a rough patch, in September, bitcoin has already shown the best result in terms of profitability in the history of trading!

The rise in Bitcoin’s price is due to several factors. First, spot ETFs on Bitcoin recorded a staggering net tide in the amount of $494.27 million on September 27.

In addition, the largest market players, known as whales, such as Microstrategy and Metaplanet, have been actively accumulating Bitcoin. Over the past month, Microstrategy redeemed 25,720 BTC, which is the equivalent of $1.637 billion. And Metaplanet has twice acquired totaling 146.37 BTC, which is approximately $9.31 million.

Centralized exchanges also saw a significant decrease in the number of BTC coins in storage. Over the past 30 days, 45,544.27 BTC have been withdrawn, which has led to a decrease in the total amount of bitcoin from 2.9 million to 2.3 million. Usually, such actions indicate that both retail investors (the so-called plankton) and whales will keep their coins safe, hoping for further price growth.

Considering the trends of 2015-2016 and 2023, analysts suggested that bitcoin would follow the same pattern this year: if September was in the «plus» range, the price was positive for the next three months. This means that the so-called bull market has begunThe period when the price of a cryptocurrency is only growing..

One analyst believes in the power of bitcoin so much that he thinks the real price of $1 million as early as 2025. One of the conditions is that BTC should close October above $70 thousand. But such forecasts are made almost every year…

In addition, some point to another pattern that may indicate a near «green» market. Historically, the fourth quarter has been bullish during halving yearsAn event that occurs approximately every four years and reduces the reward per block by 50%. This reduces the supply of bitcoins on the market, which increases the shortage.. The fourth halving took place on April 20 this year. Although, it had almost no effect on the price of bitcoin.

Also known trader Mister Crypto believessaid that bitcoin could reach $80.5 thousand in October, then $89.7 thousand in November, and then break the $100 thousand mark in December. His prediction is based on average after the close of September with bitcoin at «plus» (although it does not specify for which period the data was taken).

Content

1 Now for a spoonful of something not delicious
2 List of important events that can affect crypto prices

Now for a spoonful of something not delicious

However, October still has a high chance of becoming an Octobear (from the English words October and bear, which means «bearish» market — a period when cryptocurrency prices are constantly falling).

At the time of writing, the price of BTC was $60.625 thousand, which is far from its historical high of $73.750 thousand (-17.89%).

Trader Oliver Velez emphasizedThe main bullish trends are observed in the second half of October, not in the beginning. The same opinion was shared by expressed founder of Cane Island Alternative Advisors, Timothy Peterson, who noted that positive dynamics in October often begins after the 19th.

Peterson added that this October was the worst start for BTC in the last 10 years (red line on the chart below).

Besides, as we all know, some events on the crypto market are simply impossible to predict. The longest and «bloodiest» crypto winter occurred after the collapse of the FTX exchange 2022. Back then, all digital assets were in a deep hole for a long time. Now, according to rumors, a similar situation may arise due to the lack of transparency of Tether, the issuer of the #1 stablecoin — USDT.

At the beginning of the month, the market was feverish amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East. The bitcoin rate fell by more than $2 thousand after Iran launched a large-scale missile attack on Israel. Later, the situation calmed down a bit. But…

FTX was mentioned for a reason. On October 7, a court hearing on FTX’s reorganization plan is expected in the US Bankruptcy Court in Delaware. It is crucial because it could pave the way for payments to more than 98% of the affected exchange’s customers and unsecured creditors. The decision could significantly affect the sentiment of the crypto market.

Additional hearings are scheduled for October 22, November 20, and December 12. They will be aimed at combining claims into single categories to simplify the payment process.

FTX’s reorganization plan includes the resumption of the bankrupt crypto exchange’s operations and the satisfaction of creditors’ claims. Payouts will be based on the dollar value of cryptocurrency assets as of November 11, 2022, when the exchange filed for bankruptcy. The total number of claims is estimated at $6.83 billion, which will be paid in cash.

List of important events that can affect crypto prices

Unemployment rate in the US (October 4)

The unemployment rate reflects the percentage of unemployed individuals who are actively seeking employment in the United States. A high rate indicates a weak labor market, while a low rate indicates a strong one. A low unemployment rate usually strengthens the dollar, which can reduce the attractiveness of cryptocurrencies as. And vice versa.

Inflation data in the US (October 10)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures changes in the prices of goods and services from the perspective of consumers. In the United States, it is a key indicator for tracking consumer trends and inflation.
A high inflation rate can lead to an increase in demand for cryptocurrencies, especially bitcoin, which is considered «digital gold» and a way to preserve value. Investors often start buying up cryptocurrencies in times of inflation when traditional currencies lose their purchasing power.

Presidential elections in the United States (November 5)

Digital assets have become one of the key topics of discussion for the first time. Political Donald Trump’s position and Joe Biden on cryptocurrencies could have a significant impact on the economy and the market.

The US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision (November 7)

Voting by members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on interest rates. Investors are watching the results of the vote very closely, as a rate hike strengthens the dollar and could make traditional financial instruments more attractive to investors, potentially reducing demand for cryptocurrencies. However, a rate cut could stimulate investment in crypto assets.