As of mid-April, the total capitalization of the crypto market (excluding bitcoin) has decreased by 41% from its peak in December 2024. Also, capitalization decreased by 17% compared to the same period last year. The total amount fell from $1.6 trillion to $950 billion. The volume of venture capital funding decreased by 50-60% compared to the level of 2021-2022.
Cryptocurrency prices may reach their lowest point in the middle or end of the second quarter of 2025. But then things may improve.
Several signals, according to the analysis, may indicate the beginning of a new cryptozymeas there is an extremely negative sentiment due to the tariff war and the possibility of further escalation.
The generally accepted threshold for defining bull and bear markets in stock exchanges is a move of 20% or more from the recent low or high, respectively. This is not very suitable for cryptocurrencies, as they often experience price fluctuations of 20% in short periods. So it doesn’t always indicate a true change in the crypto market. Historical data shows that cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin can fall by 20% in a week but still trade within a broader upward trend. Or vice versa. In addition, cryptocurrencies are traded 24/7, which means that it is often used during hours when traditional markets are closed (e.g., evenings and weekends).
U.S. stocks (S&P 500) experienced a 22% decline between January and November 2022 during the Federal Reserve’s rate hike cycle. In comparison, the fall in bitcoin prices – which arguably started earlier (November 2021) – ended up falling 76% over the same period, almost 3.5 times the stock sell-off.
Regarding Bitcoin, which is often used to gauge the overall performance of cryptocurrencies, using it as a benchmark for market trends is becoming less and less practical as the asset class expands into new sectors (e.g., memecoins, DeFi, DePIN, AI agents, etc.). For example, the 200DMA model on bitcoin does indeed indicate that the recent sharp drop in the token can be seen as the beginning of a bearish cycle that began in late March. However, the same calculations made on the COIN50 index (which includes the 50 tokens with the largest market capitalization) show a bear market since the end of February.
Source: Coinbase
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