At the end of 2023, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang predictedthat artificial intelligence will be able to compete with humans in 5 years. And now Elon Musk, known for his «very accurate predictions» has shared his own assessment — the owner of Tesla and SpaceX expects a full-fledged AGIsmarter than the smartest person next year or by 2026 at the latest.
About the timeframe of AGI development
In a lengthy interview broadcast on X/Twitter Spaces, which was held with numerous technical problems, Elon Musk told Nikolaj Tangen, CEO of the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund, that AI development rests on available electricity, and this will be crucial in the next year or two. He also stated that the next version of the xAI Grok chatbot will be trained by May.
«If you think of AGI (general artificial intelligence) as being smarter than the smartest human, I think it’s probably going to be next year, within two years,» Musk said when asked about the timeline for AGI development.
The eccentric billionaire also complained that the lack of advanced chips was disrupting the training of the Grok 2 model and was currently a major deterrent. According to Musk, Grok 2 required about 20,000 Nvidia H100 GPUs to train the model, and Grok 3 and subsequent versions will require at least 100,000 Nvidia H100 chips.
Earlier, Elon Musk, who is also a co-founder of OpenAI, along with other experts called for to suspend the development of neurogenerative models more powerful than OpenAI GPT-4 for six months — to avoid inadvertently creating Skynet. After some time, Elon Musk created his own AI startup, xAI, several times «hit» on OpenAI and Microsoft, and then he took filed a lawsuit ChatGPT and its director Sam Altman for abandoning their original mission to develop AI for the benefit of humanity, not for profit. OpenAI denies these allegations. You can also remember the historyhow Elon Musk wanted to head OpenAI in 2018, but was rejected, got offended, and canceled the promised funding.
On electric cars and competition with BYD and others
Speaking about electric cars, Musk reiterated that Chinese automakers are the «most competitive in the world» and pose the «biggest competitive challenges» to Tesla. Earlier, he warned that Chinese competitors would destroy global competitors without trade barriers. Interestingly, before he changed his mind about Chinese automakers, Elon Musk used to ridicule BYD cars.
Musk also mentioned the trade union strike in Sweden against Tesla at the end of 2023 and addressed the organizers with the words: «I think the storm on this front has passed». In response, Tangen said that the $1.5 trillion Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, one of Tesla’s largest shareholders, met with the company’s chairman last month and received an update on the situation.
Musk also addressed the union strike in Sweden against Tesla, saying: “I think the storm has passed on that front.”
Tangen said that Norway’s $1.5 trillion sovereign wealth fund, one of Tesla’s largest shareholders, met with the company’s CEO last month and received an update on the situation.