This week, BTC showed growth. The price of bitcoin has been rising for three days in a row as US President Donald Trump softens his tone on Chinese tariffs and sharply softened his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The price rose to $94 thousand, the highest level since March 3. Later, BTC dropped to $92 thousand.
On April 22, exchange-traded funds tracking the price of bitcoin experienced significant inflow of fundsas interest in hedging has increased due to stock market turbulence and the falling dollar. According to data According to SoSoValue, on April 23, the bitcoin ETF recorded inflows of $916.43 million, which is the highest daily figure since January 17.
This week’s rise in bitcoin has pushed shorts to buy back in order to close their positions, thereby pushing the price even higher. According to data CoinGlass, in 24 hours, bitcoin suffered liquidations worth more than $336 million.
So what do analysts say about the fate of BTC in the near future (since we shouldn’t look too far ahead with Trump’s policy)?
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Longists have woken up
Supporters of long-term positions (focused on making a profit from the growth of the asset’s price) began to buy more than their opponents. For every 1 BTC sold by shorts, longs accumulated 1.38 BTC. According to Glassnode, after reaching its lowest level in January, long-term investors accumulated 635,340 BTC, bringing their total capital to 13,755,722 BTC. The statistics included those who have been holding bitcoin for at least 155 days and tend to accumulate during market downturns and sell on the upswing.
The 155-day threshold starts around November 20. During this period, the price rose to $95 thousand from $65 thousand. Many investors who bought during this growth have now moved to long-term positions. Despite a 30% decline from the historical high of $109 thousand in January of this year, long-term investors continue to hold their coins on average.
On April 23, Bitcoin overtook Alphabet (Google) and Amazon in terms of market capitalization, rising to the fifth position among the most valuable assets in the world. However, due to the price decline, bitcoin’s market capitalization has now fallen to $1.833 trillion and its position has dropped to 8th.
Two pillars and breakthroughs
According to 21 Shares crypto researcher Matt Mena, the next resistance point for bitcoin is $95,000. A breakout would mean further growth in value. After that, the key psychological level will be $100 thousand again.
«As macro and global conditions continue to emphasize the need for a next-generation digital store of value, bitcoin is increasingly beginning to fulfill this role. What distinguishes this growth is the eastern conviction of bitcoin’s function for macro hedging. More investors are turning to it not just as a speculative asset, but as a safe haven amid growing uncertainty in traditional markets», — said He is CNBC.
In addition, the price of BTC is fueled by the growing number of exchange-traded products (ETFs). Recently, US President Donald Trump and his media company Trump Media & Technology Group has entered into an agreement with the largest US exchange Crypto.com to launch a number of cryptocurrency exchange-traded investment funds.
«With uncertainty growing in the traditional monetary system and the US regulatory environment shifting toward constructive engagement, institutional investors are clearly re-aligning, and bitcoin is becoming a major beneficiary», — said Fortune Thomas Erdosi, Head of Product at CF Benchmarks.
Brandon Lutnick, son of US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick and chairman of brokerage Cantor Fitzgerald, has joined forces with SoftBank, Tether, and Bitfinex to create a multi-billion dollar investment fund to acquire BTC.
The newly created company will be called 21 Capital and will have $3 billion in bitcoin (42,000 coins), making it the third-largest cryptocurrency firm in the world by cryptocurrency reserve. Tether will contribute $1.5 worth of bitcoins, while SoftBank and Bitfinex will contribute $900 million and $600 million in digital currency, respectively. However, according to the FTThe official announcement is still a few weeks away and some figures may change.
On April 23, he suddenly admitted that he may have been wrong. If the value of BTC exceeds $100 thousand, Ju’s previous statement about the end of the bull market will be false.
«After I said that the bull cycle for bitcoin was over, BTC fell by 10%. Then it rose again by 10%… If bitcoin exceeds $100k, I will gladly admit that my prediction was wrong… In a market where events such as Trump’s words cause a strong reaction, it is difficult to predict prices using indicators… If bitcoin reaches a new all-time high (ATH) before the fourth quarter, I will safely abandon the», — cycle theory recognized He.
A curiosity for an appetizer
A month ago (March 21), a trader known as Doctor Profit made a forecas twhich turned out to be very accurate. Doctor Profit’s analysis was based on bitcoin’s reaction to changes in the money supply (M2), which he identified as a misunderstood indicator. He argued that although the market experienced an increase in liquidity starting in February, the bullish growth in September 2024 already included this increase in liquidity.
In particular, Doctor Profit had previously identified a key technical level (weekly EMA 50), also known as the «golden line», at around $76,000. He expected a rebound from this level, predicting a move to the $87,000-$88,000 range before the next correction. This happened in the first days of April.
The next phase: bitcoin will head to the $70,000-$74,000 support zone (also confirmed in fact). Doctor Profit sees a potential drop to $74,000-$70,000 as the next stop.
According to the analyst, market behavior in this support zone will be crucial. He identified two scenarios:
- If BTC only temporarily stays in the $74,000-$70,000 range and manages to rise above the «golden line» on the daily or weekly chart, this will signal a reversal. Therefore, it will be useful to close short positions and start accumulating.
- If Bitcoin closes below this critical zone, it will trigger a more powerful bearish movement that could potentially bring the price down to $50,000 (black swan «» event).
Contrary to the current short-term bearish outlook, Doctor Profit remains bullish on the long term. He believes that bitcoin’s bullish rally will begin around May or June, and eventually the price will rise to new all-time highs in the $120k-$140k range. Doctor Profit’s bearish forecast of $74k will not be triggered if BTC successfully closes the week above $100k (which the author of the forecast expressed confidence in).
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